Codes of possible cross-border operation

The ongoing conflict between the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham in northern Syria, which is just south of the Turkey-Syria border, has caused a great disturbance in Ankara, introducing discussions regarding whether a military operation will be launched in northern Syria to provide Turkey with border security. Turkish media publish many stories on this subject every day, some of which are full of details that do not actually represent reality. But still, where there is smoke there is fire.

It is known that Ankara has decided not to remain indifferent to developments in northern Syria. State security institutions have discussed the issue thoroughly in the presence of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan or Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu. But reaction to these developments has not yet been determined.

There are two main subjects regarding northern Syria that have upset Ankara. The first is the northern Syrian strategy of the PYD, which is recognized as a wing of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) by Ankara. For a long time, the PYD has been planning to form an autonomous zone in northern Syria by uniting the three cantons it founded in the region. But there are two major obstacles hampering this goal.

First, the corridor where the cantons are situated does not just contain Kurds. There is also a considerable Turkmen and Arab population. This is a major problem for the PYD, since these groups do not accept the dominance of the PYD. The second problem that the PYD is experiencing is that the regions between the cantons are under the control of ISIS and the Free Syrian Army. Thus, the PYD has to fight both ISIS and the Free Syrian Army.

The PYD seems determined to resolve both problems at the same time. As a result of clashes with ISIS, the PYD seized Tel Abyad, which is located between the cantons of Jazira and Kobani, thus uniting these two cantons. Moreover, various sources indicate that it also attempting to change the demographics of the region by forcing the non-Kurdish population to migrate. Consequently, some Arabs and Turkmens have taken refuge in Turkey. According to refugees who witnessed the events, the PYD administration considers Turkmens and Arabs as ISIS members unless they migrate to Turkey. This is a calamitous claim. But there are many witnesses.

This situation has caused serious concern in Ankara for several reasons. Ankara wishes the formation of a democratic regime in Syria, but also argues that the territorial integrity of Syria should not be harmed. This one-sided step by the PYD might mean the dissolution of Syria, and the region might also drift into a complicated state of chaos. On the other hand, the PYD's steps to change the region's demographics might also be the harbinger of new conflicts and new migration waves into Turkey. Such attempts by the PYD also bring negative consequences to Turkey's domestic politics and the reconciliation process. All these factors force Ankara to take measures.

The second main subject raising concerns in Ankara with regard to northern Syria is the presence of ISIS, whose power could not be undermined. The positioning of such a dangerous terrorist organization just on the other side of the border is, per se, a security threat. When the violence ISIS imposes on the region's people is added to the picture, Turkey's concerns seem justified. But it is not only limited to this. Lately, Daily Sabah achieved a significant journalistic success. In a cover story, the collaboration between ISIS and the Assad regime was uncovered based on reliable, striking data.

According to the news story, the administrators of ISIS and the Assad regime held a confidential meeting in Syria and determined to act together in critical locations. ISIS has been selling the oil it drills in Syria to the Assad regime for a long time. It is evident from the story in Daily Sabah that Assad-ISIS relations have gone beyond the economic dimension and grown to the point of a strategic partnership. With this story, it becomes more comprehensible why ISIS targets Syrian opponents who have made progress against al-Assad, and why the organization harms the liberation fight ongoing in Syria. The fact that the vandal terrorist organization ISIS acts as a Trojan horse intensifies the disturbance of Ankara in the face of ISIS.

These two main reasons force Ankara to directly or indirectly become involved in developments in northern Syria. So, what will Ankara do? Let's answer this.

Ankara is determined not to remain indifferent to the developments. Some scenarios are being developed to break the influence of the ISIS and PYD, which is in search of land under the guise of fighting against ISIS, to support Syrian opponents and prevent possible migrations. Military intervention and forming secure-zones are also among the scenarios considered. Two options are being discussed at this point. The first option suggests that the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) form a secure zone via direct intervention and then withdraw from the region by leaving it to the Free Syrian Army. The other option is to support the Free Syrian Army's gains against ISIS with a military intervention that will be conducted without crossing the borderline.

But military intervention is the last option, since it could have many unpredictable side effects and security problems. Work on other options is ongoing. Contacts are being made with actors that are opposed to ISIS and the PYD in the region. Massoud Barzani has nearly the same perspective as Turkey on that matter. The situation is also being evaluated with the coalition and allies.

Since a government has not yet been formed in Turkey following the June 7 elections, we cannot argue that military options are imminent. A little more time is required for that. But the region is very rhythmic and dynamic. Rapid developments in the region might force the temporary government to issue a memorandum for a cross-border operation, which has been authorized by Parliament before.